Eight Teams. One Champion. My Predictions.

The EuroLeague quarterfinals begin April 28. Eight teams, four best-of-five series, one Final Four in Athens on May 22-24. The Play-In Showdown delivers the final two participants — Panathinaikos as the 7th seed, Barcelona as the 8th seed.

Here are my predictions — series by series, with full reasoning.

QUARTERFINALS

1 vs. 8 — Olympiacos vs. Monaco — Olympiacos 3-1

Monaco earned their playoff spot the hard way — surviving two elimination games in four days, beating Crvena Zvezda on Tuesday and Barcelona on Friday. They will arrive in Piraeus exhausted, physically depleted, and facing the competition's best home record.

But Monaco is not Barcelona. They are more dangerous, more experienced in this specific rivalry, and carry a chip on their shoulder from a season defined by turbulence. Monaco swept Olympiacos twice in the regular season — only Monaco and Valencia managed that this term. Mike James knows this stage. Blossomgame has just delivered the best game of his EuroLeague postseason career. This will not be comfortable for Olympiacos.

Monaco will steal one game in Piraeus. Their defense — which held Barcelona to 70 points on Friday — is real enough to make one game a genuine contest. But the fatigue accumulated across the Play-In, combined with Olympiacos's depth and home-court dominance, is too much to overcome across five games.

Monaco will make it interesting. One game. Then the better team closes it out.

Olympiacos 3-1

2 vs. 7 — Valencia vs. Panathinaikos — Panathinaikos 3-1

This is the upset of the quarterfinals. Valencia finished second at 26-12 and enter as clear favorites. They are the most dangerous offensive team in the competition, averaging the highest points total in the league. On paper, this should not be close.

But Panathinaikos arrive having found something in the Play-In that was missing all season. Beating Monaco at home in Athens was not just a result — it was a signal that this roster, when the system finally clicks and the crowd is behind them, is capable of the kind of basketball their budget and talent always promised. The 2024 EuroLeague champions have been dormant all season. They are waking up at exactly the right moment.

Valencia's offense is brilliant in open space. Panathinaikos, when their defense is engaged, takes that space away. Their athleticism, their depth, and the home-court advantage in Games 3 and 4 in Athens swings the series. This is the result that reshapes the Final Four.

Panathinaikos 3-1.

3 vs. 6 — Real Madrid vs. Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv — Real Madrid 3-1

The most interesting quarterfinal on paper. Real Madrid has been the most efficient team in the competition since January — the best difference between points scored and conceded per possession in the league. Their half-court offense is precise, their defense at home in the WiZink Center is suffocating, and Mario Hezonja as their primary scorer has been one of the most consistent individual performers over the second half of the season.

Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv are the competition's most compelling story. They won the EuroCup last year and made their EuroLeague debut this season — finishing sixth in their first campaign in the top flight is a remarkable achievement. Chris Jones as their playmaker is genuinely dangerous, and their physicality and defensive intensity makes them very difficult to dominate for a full series. They steal one game in Madrid. It is not enough.

Real Madrid 3-1.

4 vs. 5 — Fenerbahçe vs. Zalgiris Kaunas — Fenerbahçe 3-1

The defending champions against the competition's most physical, most disruptive team. Zalgiris will push Fenerbahçe — they always do — and Kaunas remains one of the most difficult road environments in European basketball. But Fenerbahçe's championship experience and individual quality at home in Istanbul closes this out in four rather than five.

Zalgiris steal one game. Fenerbahçe take the other three.

Fenerbahçe 3-1.

FINAL FOUR — Athens, May 22-24

The Final Four lands in Athens. Two Greek clubs in the semifinals. The city knows what is at stake.

Semifinal 1: Olympiacos vs. Fenerbahçe — Olympiacos

Single-elimination basketball in Piraeus against the defending champions. On any other neutral court, this would be a coin flip. In Athens, it is not.

Olympiacos have been the best team in Europe across 38 rounds. Their home form — nine consecutive wins in the Piraeus building — transfers to a Final Four crowd that will treat this as a championship game from the opening tip. Fenerbahçe have won this tournament before and know how to manage pressure. But the crowd, the energy, and the best team in Europe playing at peak efficiency is too much for one game.

Olympiacos advances.

Semifinal 2: Real Madrid vs. Panathinaikos — Panathinaikos

The bigger upset of the Final Four. Real Madrid arrive as the more efficient, more structured, more consistently excellent team across the full season. None of that matters as much as it should in a single-elimination semifinal.

Panathinaikos are playing in Athens. Their city, their crowd, their Final Four. The 2024 champions are back on the stage they won on two years ago, and the weight of that history — combined with a roster that has finally found its identity in the postseason — produces the performance that eliminates the most efficient team in the competition.

It will not be clean. It will not be comfortable. But Panathinaikos finds a way.

Panathinaikos advances.

FINAL: Olympiacos vs. Panathinaikos — Olympiacos

A Greek final. In Athens. Between the two great rivals of Hellenic basketball.

This is the EuroLeague Final Four moment that Greek basketball has been waiting decades to produce. The Panathinaikos faithful and the Olympiacos faithful in the same building, in their own city, playing for the European championship. What a game.

Panathinaikos won it in 2024. Olympiacos have been the best team in Europe this season by every measurable standard. They have not lost to Panathinaikos in eleven consecutive EuroLeague meetings. They finish what the regular season already told us — that this is their year, their title, their city.

The final narrative is almost too clean: Olympiacos, the number one seed, unbeaten at home all postseason, closes out their arch-rivals in the most watched EuroLeague final in the competition's history.

Olympiacos. EuroLeague Champions 2026.