The Battle For Europe Awaits

Review of my Predictions

Three of four correct. That is a decent record in a playoff field that surprised everyone at least once. Valencia advancing past Panathinaikos in Game 5 — without Kostas Sloukas, in Athens, in front of a hostile crowd — was the single most unexpected result of the entire postseason. It changed everything: the bracket, the narrative, and the possibility of a Greek final on Greek soil.

The new picture: Olympiacos vs. Fenerbahçe in Semifinal A. Real Madrid vs. Valencia in Semifinal B. Both games on Friday, May 22, at the Telekom Center Athens. The final on Sunday, May 24.

My prediction has not changed. Olympiacos wins it all. But the road is harder than the seedings suggest.

Here is why and what you need to know about each semifinal before the ball tips.

Semifinal A — Friday, May 22, 18:00 local time (15:00 GMT) | PIRAEUS vs. FENERBAHÇE

Greece vs. Turkey. The most politically loaded rivalry in European basketball.
Two clubs with a combined three EuroLeague titles, two fanbases that have never needed a reason to hate each other, and one stage that belongs entirely to one of them.

This is Olympiacos' floor.

The Coaches: Patience vs. Fire

Georgios Bartzokas has been building toward this for thirteen years. He won his first EuroLeague title with Olympiacos in 2013 — his debut season — and has spent the decade since proving that was not luck. Three EuroLeague Coach of the Year awards. Seven Final Four appearances total. A runner-up in 2023. A semifinal exit in 2025. Now, in his seventh Final Four with Olympiacos, he is two wins from a second title, which would represent the second-longest gap between EuroLeague championships in history.

Bartzokas coaches with structure. His teams defend first, exploit frontcourt advantages methodically, and do not panic in tight fourth quarters. He is not flashy. He does not need to be.

Sarunas Jasikevicius is the mirror image: more instinctive, more reliant on his players' improvisation, and one of the most decorated basketball figures in European history regardless of whether you count his playing career or his coaching record. He arrived at Fenerbahçe midseason in 2023-24 under emergency circumstances and won the EuroLeague title last year. His contract runs through this summer. The question of whether he stays — and whether this final push becomes the defining moment of his Istanbul tenure — hangs over everything.

Last season, Fenerbahçe beat Olympiacos in the Abu Dhabi Final Four semifinal. Bartzokas has not forgotten.

Edge: Bartzokas. Home context, five-consecutive-Final-Four continuity, and a roster built for exactly this game.

The Rosters: Depth vs. Experience

Olympiacos finished the regular season as the number-one seed — and it was not a fluke. They were first in two-point shooting percentage in the league (59.3%), and their frontcourt was simply the best unit in European basketball this season. Two All-EuroLeague First Team selections from the same club. That has not happened in recent memory.

Beyond the headliners, the depth is real. Evan Fournier, Tyler Dorsey, Alec Peters, Tyrique Jones, Kostas Papanikolaou — every rotation player can hurt you in a specific way. Bartzokas does not have a weak link.

Fenerbahçe's roster reads differently. Their regular season was defined by inconsistency — they finished fourth after holding first place for much of the year, losing five of their last six regular-season games. But they survived Zalgiris in four games and carry the confidence of defending champions. Wade Baldwin and Talen Horton-Tucker represent legitimate perimeter danger. Nicolo Melli, 35 years old and playing what he has said will be his last season, is the defensive backbone and the emotional center. Khem Birch anchors the paint.

What Fenerbahçe lacks is the frontcourt firepower to match what they will face on May 22. Their interior defense will be tested to its limit.

Edge: Olympiacos. Deeper, more physically dominant, playing at home.

The Stars: Vezenkov and Milutinov vs. Baldwin and Horton-Tucker

Sasha Vezenkov won the regular season MVP. He scored in double figures in 33 of 34 appearances. Reached 20 points 19 times. Posted the most PIRs of 20+ in the league. He is not a highlight player — he is a consistency machine, a 6'9" forward who combines shooting range, intelligent movement, and rebounding into a package that defenses have no clean answer for. In this building, against this crowd, he will be the best player on the floor.

One of the more underrated "stars" in the league. Nikola Milutinov led the entire EuroLeague in rebounding at 7.1 per game, was first in offensive rebounding percentage, and shot 69.2% on two-point attempts — the most efficient center in the league. He does not need the ball to change games. His positioning, his physicality, and his ability to draw fouls (nearly four per game) make him a constant drain on the opposition.

For Fenerbahçe, the answer has to come from the perimeter. Wade Baldwin is their engine — dynamic, capable of runs that change momentum in minutes. Talen Horton-Tucke brings defensive versatility and scoring efficiency in the mid-range game. These are legitimate players. Against any other frontcourt in the tournament, they might be enough. Against Vezenkov and Milutinov together, on May 22 in Athens, the math gets uncomfortable.

Nando De Colo deserves a sentence of his own. The 39-year-old veteran has said this is his final season. He is not the player he was at his peak — no one who has played this long still is — but De Colo's court intelligence, his ability to slow a game down when Fenerbahçe needs stability, and the sheer weight of what this moment means to him personally, makes him an unpredictable factor. He may not score 20. But he will matter.

Edge: Olympiacos. Vezenkov and Milutinov together are the most dangerous frontcourt duo in this tournament — and arguably the best combination in Europe this season.

The X-Factors

For Olympiacos: Tyler Dorsey. If Fenerbahçe overloads the paint to slow Vezenkov and Milutinov, Dorsey — an All-EuroLeague Second Team selection — is the perimeter release valve who can make them pay from deep. A hot shooting night from Dorsey makes Olympiacos nearly impossible to stop.

For Fenerbahçe: Tarik Biberovic. The 23-year-old Bosnian wing tied his career high of 26 points in Game 1 against Zalgiris. He is athletic, physical, and capable of the kind of eruption that could shift an entire semifinal. If Fenerbahçe is going to beat Olympiacos on this floor, someone unexpected has to have the game of their career. Biberovic is the likeliest candidate.

The Verdict

Olympiacos swept Monaco 3-0 in the quarterfinals. They have not lost at home since January. They hold the deepest roster in the tournament and the number-one seed. More than any of that — they are playing in Piraeus' backyard, in a city that has been waiting for this Final Four since it was announced.

Fenerbahçe is a dangerous team with championship DNA. But they are not built to beat this version of Olympiacos, on this floor, with this crowd.

Prediction: Olympiacos advances.

Semifinal B — Friday, May 22, 21:00 local time (18:00 GMT) | Real vs. Valencia

A Spanish derby on a Greek stage. Real Madrid, the most decorated club in EuroLeague history with 11 titles. And Valencia Basket, playing in their first Final Four ever, who were supposed to be eliminated two weeks ago.

This matchup should not exist. Valencia's own coach, Pedro Martínez, acknowledged as much after the win over Panathinaikos: the team's original objective for the season was the play-in, then the playoffs, then the top four. The Final Four was never in the plan. That is both the story and the danger.

The Coaches: The Student vs. The Institution

Pedro Martínez is the 2025-26 EuroLeague Coach of the Year — a fact that tells you everything about what Valencia accomplished this season. He guided a roster built without Final Four expectations to a second-place regular-season finish and then a stunning five-game playoff run against Panathinaikos. He speaks with self-awareness and no illusions: "Real Madrid is giving us a hard time. They are beating us quite easily," he said after qualifying. That quote is not defeat — it is a coach who knows exactly what he is up against and plans accordingly.

Sergio Scariolo arrived at Real Madrid this season carrying a résumé that very few coaches in the world can match: FIBA World Cup gold in 2019, four EuroBasket titles with Spain, multiple Olympic medals. He took a Real Madrid team that missed the Final Four in 2025 and rebuilt it into the most efficient offensive and defensive unit in the league from January onward. His systems are precise, his rotations deep, and his tactical reading of opponents methodical. He also knows Martínez personally — they first crossed paths 36 years ago, and the younger coach has spoken of his admiration for Scariolo with genuine warmth.

It is a fascinating subplot. Two coaches who respect each other, going head-to-head in a semifinal neither expected to be this.

Edge: Scariolo. Greater EuroLeague resources, a deeper roster, and the accumulated tactical scar tissue of multiple championship campaigns.

The Rosters: Star Power vs. System Execution

Real Madrid's strength since January has been systemic rather than individual. They posted the best offensive efficiency differential in the league (+0.10 points per possession, ahead of Olympiacos at +0.07) and the highest three-point shooting percentage of any Final Four team (38%). Their 18-1 home record this regular season was not an accident — Scariolo built a team that knows exactly how to play in its own building. That structure travels.

The key pieces: Facundo Campazzo averaged 16.5 points in his final four regular-season games and led Madrid in the playoffs. He is the engine, the press-breaker, and the player who makes everything else work. Walter Tavares — a three-time EuroLeague Best Defender — is the most dominant rim protector in the tournament. Mario Hezonj and Trey Lyles at the forward spots give Madrid size, shooting, and two-way versatility. Theo Maledon is the young playmaker desperate for his first Final Four appearance, bringing urgency to every possession.

Valencia's system is built differently. Martínez runs a disciplined, collective offense with no dominant alpha but multiple reliable contributors. Jean Montero was named to the All-EuroLeague First Team — the 22-year-old Dominican point guard averaged 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game in the regular season and erupted for 29 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in the decisive Game 5 against Panathinaikos. He is fast, creative, and performs in high-stakes games. Kameron Taylo and the supporting cast executed at a level no pre-season projection predicted. Valencia also shot 87.5% from the free-throw line in that decisive game — a team that does not crack under pressure.

Edge: Real Madrid. Deeper, more experienced in Final Four environments, and tactically better equipped to handle Valencia's surprises.

The Stars: Campazzo and Tavares vs. Montero

Facundo Campazzo is the player who defines this Real Madrid team. He is not physically dominant. He is not a 25-point scorer. But no player in this tournament reads the game faster, finds the open man more consistently, or wins more possessions through sheer competitive intelligence. In a single-game format, Campazzo-led teams are dangerous — he does not need a series to impose his will.

Walter Tavares changes the calculus at both ends. Any Valencia ball-handler driving the lane has to account for the 7'3" Cape Verdean waiting at the rim. Offensively, his two-point efficiency and ability to roll hard and finish through contact makes him a constant threat. If Valencia cannot attack the paint — and with Tavares there, they may not be able to — their half-court offense becomes significantly less dangerous.

Jean Montero is Valencia's entire counterargument. He is the one player in this semifinal capable of going supernova on a single night and making every tactical advantage irrelevant. He does not care about reputation, history, or opponent salary. He plays the game at his own pace and has already proven, in this postseason, that he can carry a team in an elimination game.

Evan Fournier note: Fournier plays for Olympiacos, not Real Madrid — but Madrid's own perimeter depth, through Maledon, Campazzo, and McKissic, means they do not lack for guard options.

Edge: Real Madrid. Campazzo and Tavares are a uniquely difficult combination to neutralize in a one-game format.

The X-Factors

For Real Madrid: Trey Lyles. The American forward was a key reason Madrid dominated their conference finals stretch. His size, shooting range, and ability to defend multiple positions make him the connective tissue in Scariolo's rotation. A big game from Lyles gives Madrid a third scoring threat that Valencia's scouting report may not fully account for.

For Valencia: Kameron Taylor. Practically anonymous to anyone outside the EuroLeague regular watcher, Taylor has been one of the most efficient players in the league on a per-possession basis. He plays hard, shoots efficiently, and makes correct decisions under pressure — exactly the profile of player who can go for 18 in a game everyone predicted he would go for 8. If Madrid focuses its defensive attention on Montero, Taylor will punish them.

The Story Behind the Story

The Martinez-Scariolo angle deserves more than a footnote. A 36-year professional relationship, built through Spanish basketball's long ascent from EuroLeague contender to world power, now producing a Final Four semifinal between their clubs. Martínez was explicit in his admiration: "An incredible coach with NBA experience. Maximum admiration." Then immediately: "But this is not about coaches, fortunately."

That is the right framing. Valencia did not get here on coaching. They got here because a group of players executed at a level above their projected ceiling for an entire season. That is real. It may not be repeatable for 40 minutes against Real Madrid — but the possibility that it is makes this the most interesting game of the Final Four.

Prediction: Real Madrid advances.

The Final — Sunday, May 24

Olympiacos vs. Real Madrid.

The #1 seed against the most decorated club in EuroLeague history. Vezenkov and Milutinov against Campazzo and Tavares. Bartzokas, hunting his second title after a thirteen-year wait, against Scariolo, building toward a legacy in his first season at the biggest club on the continent.

Athens wanted a home final. It will not get a Greek one — but it will get the best possible matchup from what this field produced.

My pick: Olympiacos lifts the trophy.

They are at home. They have the deepest frontcourt in the tournament. They are 5-0 in their last five games. And after four consecutive Final Four appearances without the title, this Olympiacos group has something more than talent driving them.

Thirteen years is a long time to wait for a second championship. On May 24, Bartzokas closes that gap.