The MVP Race Is Over. Sort Of.

UPDATE — April 17, 2026: Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham have been ruled eligible for MVP voting by the NBA and NBPA under the CBA's extraordinary circumstances provision. The ballot and analysis below have been updated accordingly.

NBA 2025-26: The Most Valuable Player Award

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win his second straight MVP. That's not a prediction — it's a formality. The trophy is decided. What's worth arguing about is everything that happened around it.

This is my ballot. Five names, defended.

PART I — THE TOP 5

#1 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
31.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 55.3% shooting. The Thunder went 56-12 in the 68 games he played. The only real argument against him is that it's the same argument as last year. That's not a flaw. That's the point.

#2 — Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 56.9% from the field. The first player to lead the league in both rebounds and assists per game since 1967-68. Without him, Denver is a play-in team. Jokić on my ballot at two is a statement — and I'll defend it in Part III.

#3 — Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks. The Spurs went 30-4 since February 1. The most dominant two-way player in this race. Third place on my ballot is not an insult. It's a timing problem.

#4 — Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 steals. Led the league in scoring. Missed two games in December for the birth of his daughter in Slovenia — that qualified as an extraordinary circumstance under the CBA. The hamstring ended his season at 64 games. Eligible. On my ballot at four.

#5 — Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
23.9 points, 9.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds per game. The primary reason Detroit finished as the number one seed in the East. Missed 12 games due to a collapsed lung diagnosed on March 17 — on a diving play for a loose ball. The rule exists for moments like this.

PART II — THE 65-GAME RULE:
A STORYLINE THAT BECAME A FARCE

The 65-game eligibility rule was designed to reward availability. This season, it became a storyline — and then a farce.

The NBA's collective bargaining agreement includes an "extraordinary circumstances" clause that a player can use to petition to make the ballot if he falls short of the 65-game minimum. Dončić and Cunningham both invoked it. Both were granted eligibility without even needing a formal hearing — the league and union simply agreed.

Anthony Edwards filed the same challenge. An independent arbitrator denied it. He played 60 games.

The rule needs changing. 60 games is the obvious fix. What happened this season — Wembanyama and Jokić needing token appearances in meaningless games to qualify, while Dončić gets in through a birth and a hamstring — is not what the rule intended. But that's a different article.

Beyond the eligibility drama: Tyrese Maxey and Kawhi Leonard both earned votes in ESPN's final straw poll. Leonard in particular — at 34, setting career bests in PER, BPM and scoring rate while carrying an aging Clippers roster to a winning season — deserved more attention than he got.

PART III — THE CASES, ARGUED

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — The Case That Closes Itself

31.1 points, 6.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 55.3% shooting. His fourth consecutive season averaging over 30 points — a club that in NBA history includes Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Adrian Dantley.

He became the second player in NBA history to average 30-plus points on 50% shooting alongside 5-plus rebounds, 5-plus assists, 1.5-plus steals and 1-plus blocks. The only other player to do it: Michael Jordan, twice.

He broke Wilt Chamberlain's record for the longest consecutive streak of 20-plus point games, reaching 140 straight — with the streak still active at season's end.

The Thunder won 64 games despite Jalen Williams playing only 31 games. SGA landed on top of 88 out of 100 ballots in ESPN's final straw poll, finishing 300 points clear of Wembanyama.

The argument against him is structural, not statistical: it's the same season as last year. What SGA is asking voters to reward is relentless, historic consistency — and in a field this deep, that turns out to be harder to argue against than it sounds.

Nikola Jokić — Why He's Second on My Ballot

27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 56.9% from the field. A triple-double average, again, at 31 years old. The first player to lead the league in both rebounds and assists per game in a season since Wilt Chamberlain in 1967-68.

The media consensus puts Wembanyama second. I don't.

Remove Jokić from Denver, and the Nuggets are a play-in team. Their entire offensive structure — every set, every spacing decision, every late-clock solution — runs through him. No other player in this race carries that weight so completely. Wembanyama plays on a deep Spurs roster built around him. SGA has Chet Holmgren and a Thunder system that distributes the load. Jokić is Denver's system. He is the spacing, the playmaking, and the scoring — simultaneously, every possession.

He was on pace to break his own PER record before a sluggish return from a knee bone bruise forced him to settle for what projects as the second-best mark in NBA history.

Third seed in the West is the knock.

Fair. But third place built almost entirely on the back of one player who missed time and still produced these numbers is a different kind of third place.

Victor Wembanyama — The Preview

Third on my ballot. Not because he was outplayed — he wasn't, not consistently. Because of timing, minutes, and one number that matters.

Wembanyama played roughly 400 fewer minutes than both Jokić and SGA. His net rating since February 1 was plus-25.6. The Spurs went 30-4 in that stretch. His 3.1 blocks led the league for the third straight year. His offensive game expanded — rim running, pick-and-roll creation, deep threes, increasingly comfortable with the physicality that gave him trouble as a rookie.

He stated his case plainly: "I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I think I should lead the race."

He's right that there's a debate. He's wrong about who leads it — for now. The award is for 82 games, not 29. Next year, this conversation changes. The year after that, it may not need to happen at all.

Luka Dončić — The Scoring Title That Almost Didn't Count

33.5 points per game. League leader. He missed two games for the birth of his daughter, was suspended once for hitting the technical foul limit, then lost the final five games to a hamstring injury. Total: 64 games. One short of the threshold.

The extraordinary circumstances provision saved him. The hamstring may cost him the playoffs — he's likely out for the first round against Houston.

Fourth on my ballot. Had he stayed healthy through April, this is a three-man race at the top. No one in this field is more dangerous to defend on any given night. The scoring title is real. The case is real. The timing was just wrong.

Cade Cunningham — The One the Rule Almost Erased

23.9 points, 9.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds. Cunningham missed 12 games after a collapsed lung diagnosed on March 17 — the result of a flukey diving play for a loose ball. He played 63 qualifying games. The Pistons finished first in the East. He was their engine.

By making All-NBA this year, he will need to make it again in 2027 or 2028 to qualify for a super-max extension. The eligibility ruling didn't just affect his MVP chances. It affected his contract.

Fifth on my ballot. In a race without SGA, Jokić and Wembanyama, Cunningham is the story of the season.

Honorary Mentions:

Jaylen Brown — The Season Nobody Predicted

Boston was supposed to have a gap year. Tatum missed most of the season with an Achilles injury. The Celtics also lost Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Luke Kornet from their championship roster.

28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists — and the second seed in the East. In the NBA anonymous player poll, SGA led with 39% of player votes, Jokić at 21.4%, and Brown tied Dončić and Cunningham at 8.2%. His peers noticed.

He doesn't win this award. The numbers aren't historic enough and the competition too fierce. But in any other season — without SGA, without Jokić, without Wembanyama at his best — Brown's 2025-26 is the story of the year.

Donovan Mitchell — The One Who Got Lost in the Noise

27.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists. Five candidates drew most of the oxygen this season. Mitchell quietly posted one of the most efficient years of his career and led Cleveland to the fourth seed in a crowded East. He appeared on six ballots in ESPN's final straw poll — a number that reflects the depth of this field more than any limitation of his season.

The verdict: SGA wins. Jokić finishes second for the fourth time in five years and adds another chapter to the most underappreciated dynasty in individual awards history. Wembanyama finishes third and files the result away.