Three Games. Two Survivors. My Picks.
My predictions first. Then the reasoning.
Game 1 (Tonight, Athens): Panathinaikos beats Monaco
Game 2 (Tonight, Barcelona): Barcelona beats Crvena Zvezda
Game 3 (Friday): Barcelona beats Monaco — 8th seed secured
PANATHINAIKOS — The Defending Champion That Lost Its Way
Panathinaikos won the EuroLeague title in 2024. Two years later, they are playing in the Play-In Showdown.
That sentence tells most of the story. The 2025-26 season has been one of expensive disappointment. Coach Ergin Ataman assembled one of the deepest rosters in the competition — Kendrick Nunn, T.J. Shorts, Mathias Lessort, Cedi Osman, a rotation built for sustained excellence. The results have been wildly inconsistent in a way that expensive, well-constructed rosters simply should not be.
Panathinaikos sit 16th out of 20 teams in the EuroLeague in three-point percentage, 19th in both total attempts and makes. For a team with this much shooting talent, those numbers are an indictment of the offensive system. The point of attack has become painfully predictable — defenders get extra half-seconds to adapt, the spacing doesn't work, and even talented bigs cannot create good looks because the ball-handling decisions are too slow and too readable.
The deeper problem: Panathinaikos fell to their 11th consecutive EuroLeague loss against Olympiacos in March, and their record in Athens against quality opponents this season has been far from the standard a team of their caliber should accept. They lost six home games in the regular season — a number that should be impossible given their roster.
Finishing seventh with a 22-16 record is, objectively, a failure. The Athens crowd tonight will be there. The talent will be there. Whether the system delivers under pressure is the open question.
AS MONACO — Surviving Despite Everything
The AS Monaco story in 2025-26 is not primarily a basketball story. It is a financial disaster that somehow produced a team good enough to reach the Play-In Showdown.
The financial difficulties were apparent from the very start of the season — Allegedly - constant wage delays, dozens of outstanding invoices from service providers, unpaid agent commissions stretching back to the previous fiscal year. In January, players discussed going on strike after salaries went unpaid. The team had been without wages dating back to November.
When December salaries were finally paid, the star player Mike James remained unpaid for roughly €50,000 — prompting public frustration and scathing social media posts from one of the EuroLeague's most recognizable figures.
The EuroLeague responded with a record fine of €300,000 and a ban on registering new players. The club's owner Aleksey Fedorychev faced court proceedings over the club's future. The principality of Monaco eventually stepped in to manage the situation, appointing a provisional administrator to assess the club's solvency. Coach Vassilis Spanoulis departed mid-season, replaced by interim coach Sergii Gladyr.
All of this happened while Monaco was playing EuroLeague basketball and finishing eighth. That is either admirable or alarming — probably both.
The basketball, when it functions, is genuinely dangerous. Monaco closed the regular season with a dominant 105-85 home win against Hapoel Tel Aviv, with Jaron Blossomgame scoring 30 points and Mike James adding 20. When James is locked in and the system flows, Monaco can beat anyone. The question is which Monaco shows up in Athens tonight — the one that beat Hapoel by twenty, or the one playing through months of salary disputes and ownership chaos.
FC BARCELONA — The Sleeping Giant That Never Woke Up
Barcelona finishing ninth is the EuroLeague's quiet scandal of the season. This is a club with financial uncertainty for the future, but still, one of the largest budgets in European basketball, a historic program with multiple EuroLeague titles, and a home court — the Palau Blaugrana — that is among the most intimidating venues in the competition.
They went 21-17. They needed the final weekend of the regular season to secure their Play-In spot.
The season has been defined by inconsistency that should not be possible at this level. Three consecutive wins, then a collapse. Strong home performances, then inexplicable road losses. Head coach Xavi Pascual has been unable to find a consistent starting five that functions at the level the roster suggests. Barcelona posted a solid 9-4 record across their last 13 home games , which is the one number that gives them confidence tonight. They know how to win at the Palau when motivated.
What they do not know is how to sustain it. Tonight against Crvena Zvezda is a one-game survival test. Barcelona at home, backed by the Palau crowd, is a different team than Barcelona in December losing to teams they should be beating by twenty.
CRVENA ZVEZDA / RED STAR BELGRADE — The Team That Should Have Been Higher
Crvena Zvezda finished tenth with a 21-17 record — identical to Barcelona. They are physically imposing, defensively disciplined, and capable of making any opponent uncomfortable in the half-court. Their problem across 38 rounds has been the same as it is every season: the ability to compete with anyone for stretches without the consistency to string results together over a full campaign.
They travel to Barcelona as the lower seed. The Palau will be full. The pressure will be on Barcelona, which paradoxically makes Crvena Zvezda's job slightly easier — they can play without the weight of expectation and make Barcelona prove they deserve to survive.
THE PREDICTIONS — AND WHY
Panathinaikos beats Monaco
Home court in Athens is the decisive factor. Panathinaikos's inconsistency has been real and well-documented, but their worst basketball this season came on the road. At home, in front of a crowd that has waited all season for a reason to believe in this team again, the talent takes over.
Monaco's situation — financial chaos, coaching change, salary disputes, a star player who spent months publicly airing his frustrations — is not a foundation for winning a road knockout game in one of the most intense atmospheres in European basketball. Mike James will need to carry them almost alone. Panathinaikos wins by managing the game in the second half and using their depth — the one genuine advantage their expensive roster provides.
Panathinaikos wins. 7th seed secured.
Barcelona beats Crvena Zvezda
The Palau Blaugrana at full capacity for a survival game is the best version of Barcelona. This is not a team that finds motivation easily over a long season — they proved that across 38 rounds. But single-elimination, home crowd, season on the line: this is exactly the context that produces the Barcelona everyone expected in October.
Crvena Zvezda will make it physical and competitive. They always do. But Barcelona's offensive firepower at home — when the half-court execution matches the talent level — is more than Crvena Zvezda can contain for forty minutes.
Barcelona wins. Survives to Friday.
Barcelona beats Monaco — 8th seed
Friday's game is between the Panathinaikos loser (Monaco, after tonight) and the Barcelona winner. It is played at Monaco's home — La Salle des Étoiles in Fontvieille.
The home crowd advantage matters. Monaco's season-closing form was strong. And Barcelona, having played a survival game on Tuesday, arrives in the south of France with one day of rest and the emotional relief of having survived already.
But Monaco's off-court situation makes sustained two-game excellence almost impossible. Two knockout games in four days, playing for a club whose financial future remains unresolved, with a coaching staff installed on an interim basis — that is a lot to ask of any group of players.
Barcelona's greater stability, their roster depth, and the specific context of a road game where the pressure falls entirely on the home side gives them the edge.
Barcelona wins. 8th seed secured.
The quarterfinals: Panathinaikos meets Valencia. Barcelona meets Olympiacos.
One of those draws is manageable. The other is not.
